AN ANALYSIS OF THE RELATIONSHIP BETWEEN EXPORTS AND ECONOMIC GROWTH IN SOUTH AFRICA, 2000–2020
Abstract
This study aimed to investigate how exports affect the overall growth of the economy in South Africa. Quarterly time series data from StatsSA and the South African Reserve Bank covering 2000 to 2020 were used. The study utilized numerous econometric approaches, such as the unit root test, Johansen’s cointegration procedure, the Vector Error Correction Model (VECM), and the Granger causality model, to gain a clear perception of the relationship between exports and the rate of South Africa’s economic growth. The Johansen cointegration test was conducted, confirming the presence of a long-term equilibrium relationship between the data series. The results of the unit root test indicated that both variables became stationary at the first difference, as evidenced by both passing the Augmented Dickey-Fuller (ADF) test. The correlation between exports and growth of the economy is positive in the short term and in the long term. The outcomes of the Granger causality tests indicated that GDP Granger-causes exports, signifying that economic growth in South Africa has an effect on exports. Additionally, the VECM outcomes demonstrated that there exists both a short-term and long-term relationship between economic growth and exports in South Africa.
Keywords
exports; economic growth; Vector Error Correction Model; Granger Causality test; South Africa
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University of Limpopo, South Africa South Africa
University of Limpopo, South Africa South Africa
University of Limpopo, South Africa South Africa
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